The release of the FOMC minutes this week introduced a little bit of chaos as headlines trumpeted that a taper would likely begin this year, only to be followed by backtracking and caveats. The minutes themselves show that the Fed is wary of the price it will pay should there be a misstep, admitting that “a tapering announcement that was perceived to be premature could bring into question the Committee’s commitment to its new monetary policy framework”. Additionally, as they consider their options, they are aware that “alternative tapering approaches could have significant financial and economic effects not fully captured in the staff’s standard empirical framework”. Thankfully, reputational and tactical questions aside, we got two regional Fed surveys hot off the press as we head into next week’s Fed conference in Jackson Hole.